Thursday, October 22, 2009

Anyone looking at the EURJPY?

I just can't find any nice trade setups in the USD based charts today.  So I decided to look at the EUR based charts, in particular the EURJPY.




On the 3 hour chart, we can see that the EURJPY has been trending up since Oct 9th and taking a breather consolidating from Oct 16th and today (Oct 21st) it broke through the 136 resistance strongly and looks like it is making a run towards the next resistance of 138 that was formed back in Aug 7th.




When going back to the 1 Day chart, you can see that 138 is a very strong resistance that was last hit back in June.

So looking at the strong momentum of the breakthrough at 136, which is after a period of consolidation from an earlier uptrend, I believe the uptrend has resumed and this will give a good trading opportunity up to 137 and possibly a test of 138 in the near future.

So let's take a closer look at the 30 min chart to plan my trade:



After such a strong move up, I think I would try to enter on a retracement.  But how much retracement should I wait for?  To give me an idea, I tried using the Fibonacci Retracement tool on my chart.  I am not sure if I am using it correctly but it does give me a few possible levels that the price can retrace too.

Based on the Fibonacci, I decided to enter at 136.45, which is the first retracement from the peak.

Now what Stop Loss protection should I take?  Logically I should set the Stop Loss just below the resistance that was just broken, ie at 136.  To give myself some wiggle room so that I don't get stopped out falsely when the price does happen to retrace strongly, I set a Stop Loss at 135.89. potential loss of 56 pips.

Ok, so what should my target exit be?  For a 1:2 risk:reward, I will set a target of 112 pips to exit at 137.57.

EURJPY
Entry Price: 136.45
Stop Loss: 135.89
Take Profit: 137.57

Well, the current price is around 136.9.  Let's see if the price does retrace and I can enter this trade :)

Happy Trading!

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